DEADLY GAME
One more article by my uncle Vijayanta Sharma Pathak... and this time he explains the recent bombing in Assam... read on to know
in Assam, which claimed over 80 lives and left more than 350 injured, some of them seriously, as the handiwork of jehadi elements rather than ULFA. Nine explosions in different parts of Assam within minutes were the biggest over onslaught in the state’s protracted history of terrorism. The high-intensity blasts were sophisticated and planned with painstaking care and supported by considerable financial resources. ULFA denied involvement immediately after the blasts in line with its customary denials whenever there was high civilian casualties. Islamic Security Force, Indian Mujahideen (ISF-IM) owned up responsibility for the blasts the next day.Assam Police special branch (intelligence) inspector general of police (IGP) Khagen Sarma has gone on record stating that the ‘needle of suspicion points to jehadi outfits behind subversive activities in the state’. He said investigations will go on and police have been zeroing in on Islamist fundamentalist forces which in recent times have been active in the region. Finger of suspicion has also been pointed to Bangladesh-based Harkat-ul-Jehad-al-Islamic (HUJI) which early on had been said to manage several ULFA camps in Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) where cadres of both the outfits trained together. ULFA, however, strongly denies any operational links with HUJI.
HUJI and ULFA have close links with Directorate General of Field Intelligence (DGFI) of Bangladesh and Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), says former additional secretary, Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), B Raman. Intelligence sources indicated in July, 2008 that both the outfits have reached a pact to operate jointly in Assam, he says, adding, HUJI has often used porous borders to enter Assam. There is, however, nothing much to suggest that HUJI has the capacity to trigger serial blasts in Assam without considerable local logistic support. The Special Investigating Team (SIT) set up by state government is presently probing into HUJI-ULFA links, if any, including authenticity of the SMS claiming the responsibility for the serial blasts.
Islamist terrorism in present times is the creation of US, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in late 1970s to achieve their strategic objective of defeating Soviet Union is Afghanistan. After withdrawal of Soviet Union from Afghanistan, Pakistan exported jobless jehadis to India in pursuit of its own strategic objective. Islamist terrorism is connected to the political struggle for restoration of the institution of khilafat. In India, the Ulema had launched the struggle for conversion of the country to Derul Islam and dictated hard-line Islam over the last 150 years.
Dead heroes
Confirming the ISI role in the recent suicide bombing of the Indian embassy in Afghanistan, National Security Adviser (NSA) and former Intelligence Bureau director MK Narayanan said a week later that ISI needs to be destroyed. Fresh intelligence inputs, he said, points to threats facing India’s missions in Mazar-e-Sharif and Jalalabad. Asserting the need to active defence or retaliation against the adversary, he said it’s time India paid back in the same coin.
Following the Kabul blasts, US President George Bush warned of serious consequences if one more attack in Afghanistan or elsewhere is traced back to it. Senior US officials early on declined to react on reports that American intelligence agencies were in possession of evidence linking ISI involvement in the embassy bombing. Reports said a top Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) official even turned up in Pakistan to confront the matter of ISI-Taliban association.
Soon after attack on the embassy, Afghanistan blamed Pakistan for the bombing. New Delhi followed suit stating that Islamabad may have been behind the attack. Afghanistan shared its findings with India which pointed to involvement of a foreign intelligence agency. After Narayanan went to town with specific charges against ISI before media, it took America a fortnight to warn Pakistan about ISI involvement, while Bush confronted Pakistan Prime Minister Yusuf Raja Gilani in Washington with evidence of ISI involvement.
Deadly doubles
There was no doubt on Gilani’s mind that US had lost patience with ISI ‘double game’. CIA also followed suit at the same time with its director Michael Hayden tossing a dossier on the table before Gilani on ISI support to Taliban. US also claimed to have arrested an ISI officer in Afghanistan. Gilani and his entourage left Washington ‘reeling’ from what ministers back home described as a grilling.
When a members of the Pakistani team asked Bush for more information, he laughed and said that “When we share information with you guys, the bad guys always seem to run away,” a Sunday Times report said. Provincial president of Awami League, which runs North West Frontier Province (NWFP) bordering Afghanistan, wondered what took the Americans so long to perceive what ISI was doing. He said, “we’ve been telling the Americans for years but they wouldn’t buy it.” Pakistan however came with an outright denial saying, “there’s no involvement of the ISI in any form in Afghanistan.”
Many US intelligence officers, the Times said, had long suspected that ISI officers accept their money and help their foes. It has, however, been difficult to find proof. Afghanistan publicly accused ISI of being behind an assassination attempt on President Karzai in April and threatened to send Afghan troops across the border into Pakistan. Afghans were, however, unable to produce any concrete evidence. US and British critical assessment on Pakistan and ISI came amidst fears that Pakistan’s tribal areas were developing into a global launchpad for terrorists. A top British official recently said “the Indian embassy bombing seems to have finally provided it. This is the smoking gun we’ve always been looking for.”
Unholy trinity
The Kabul blast marks opening up of a new front by Taliban at ISI instigation. Taliban’s first front were the Americans and North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Post-September 11, Taliban suffered a setback in the face of allied nations onslaught in ‘Operation Enduring Freedom’. During the operation, Taliban survivors and fresh recruits went through a remotivating phase and they trained in Pakistan sanctuaries. Afghan and Indian interest and objective converge at one point and that’s to prevent spread of religious extremists in the region and manipulation of their forces by ISI. And thus, what has been etched on the Pakistani people’s minds is that an unholy trinity of USA, Afghanistan and India is being formed with the objective of destroying Pakistan.
Experts say India must expect Pakistani Army to step up tension both in India and its border by orchestrating suicide bombings and terrorist actions. US Army also needs to revamp its prognostications. Pakistani Army has successfully used US forces and double-timed America on strategic issues. Current Pakistani military adventurism in Afghanistan and India irrespective of target being Kashmir or suicide terrorism attacks across the democratic country by sleeper ISI cells and modules send the message to US that the Pakistani Army is capable of destabilizing South Asia. Pakistan’s actions thus strategically discomfit USA, however unwise it may be to Pakistan’s natural interests.
Road to power
Violence and turbulence created by Pakistan in Afghanistan and India are prompted by its overriding ambition to regain political power in South Asia. What’s clear is that Pakistan’s strong political signals amount to assertion by the country that in South Asia, US can’t proceed ahead in opposition to Pakistan Army’s strategic calculations, whether related to India or Afghanistan. Pakistan Army’s traditional intransigence towards India could ensure failure of Indo-Pakistan peace progress. Pakistani politicians coupled with their rhetoric need to be ignored in terms of formulating India’s policy with regard to Pakistan. In-depth reasons that could be the base for Indian formulations and initiatives are the Pakistani Army’s demonstrative attitudes and action. Democracy returning to Pakistan notwithstanding, the civilian government has not been able to wean away its army from joining power games.
ISI role in training Taliban led to the capture of Kabul and formation of the Taliban government. Taliban in power welcomed Bin Laden and he shifted from Jalalabad to Kandahar. Laden set up his network for training on Afghan soil. When Taliban and al-Qaeda nexus deepened alarm bells started to ring in America that was also taken aback by the role played by ISI in training and nursing them to become jehadis. There are also reports of contacts between Bin Laden and old friends in ISI and other Pakistani organizations.
When Benazir Bhutto became Pakistan Prime Minister for the second time, ISI and Benazir’s interior minister (IM) Major General Naserullah Babar jointly initiated moves to encourage formation of Taliban. When the Afghan Mujahideen captured power in Kabul in April, 1992, law and order had collapsed. With ISI backing Taliban, it was just a matter of time for the group to form the government in Afghanistan. CIA and ISI differences surfaced in 1990. ISI didn’t extend cooperation when CIA wanted to buy back unused shoulder-fired Stinger missiles given to them to wage war against the Soviets.
Trigger burst
ISI was focused on its three operational priorities — annexation of Kashmir, acquiring strategic depth in Afghanistan and helping the Pakistan government acquire nuclear armaments, including missiles. America understood Pakistani inaction against Pak-based organizations active in India. There was, however, no military action against Neo Taliban operating against NATO forces in Afghanistan either. Headed by Mullah Omar, the Emir, Neo Taliban operate from camps and hideouts in Balochistan and Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Joining the war on terror, former Pakistan President Parvez Musharraf’s action against al-Qaeda was confined to non-tribal areas.
ISI-backed terrorist infrastructure in India is allegedly responsible for serial blasts in India. Musharraf himself survived two assassination bids in 2003. Those attacks were said to be triggered by al-Qaeda and its allies in connivance with some junior officers of the Pakistan armed forces. The conspiracy couldn’t be detected on time and there were fears that sections in ISI were opposed to coordination with US forces even against al-Qaeda. Ever since Benazir’s assassination on December 26 last year, party members have alleged that junior ISI officials may have had a hand in her death, besides those named by Benazir as treats to her security.
When President Asif Ali Zardari made the first foreign policy statement on Jammu and Kashmir and Indo-Pak issues, Chief of Army Staff General A Parvez Kayani asserted on his maiden visit to Pak-occupied Kashmir (POK), that Pakistan would back Kashmiri aspirations. This was a signal to politicians to lay off Kashmir, the traditional turf of the Army. On Afghanistan, the general told US and NATO that it wouldn’t let its personnel into refresher courses to fight counter-insurgency wars. The general also decided to withdraw troops from Taliban areas for heavy deployment on its borders with India. This was a strategic shift from POK’s erstwhile formulations. These actions are aimed at regaining control of foreign policy by the Pakistan Army.
Tough titans
Pakistan’s foreign policy weapons are al-Qaeda, Taliban and Islamic jehadi groups in Kashmir. Border clashes between the two countries have got under way since May last. As long as Pakistan was collaborating with US-led forces they closed their eyes to ISI’s hand in the resurgence of Taliban. After about six months of mounting NATO casualties in Afghanistan, US and allied nations slowly started realizing that they can’t defeat al-Qaeda without defeating the Taliban. US also realized it couldn’t prevent return of Taliban without taking action against its protector and mentor ISI.
Pent-up anger
Narayanan’s statements on switching to active defence are the first since 1947. US-Israeli doctrines are applicable to any nation using terrorists against US interests. No country is referred to by name. Indian nationals and interests face threats from terrorists in Bangladesh nursed by Pakistan. Any doctrine should be able to send a clear message. Afghan President’s spokesman Humayun Hamidzada was quoted as saying that “everything has the hallmark of a particular intelligence agency that has committed similar terrorist act inside Afghanistan. We firmly believe there’s a particular intelligence agency behind it. I’m not going to name it anymore. I think it’s quite obvious.”
Isn’t Pakistan Army’s gameplan against India just beginning?
Vijayanta Sharma Pathak.
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